How to Lead Through Uncertainty: Why Your Mood Matters

Abstract

This article is about a situation many leaders meet in a strategic review, a merger or a restructuring: how to lead through uncertainty when you do not have the answers either. Three pieces of research bear on it. A study of leader mood (Sy, Côté and Saavedra, 2005) compared groups led by someone in a positive mood with groups led by someone in a negative mood. The first kind of group reported a better mood, showed more coordination and expended less effort. A review of fear of the unknown (Carleton, 2016) argues that it may be a fundamental fear underlying anxiety. A field study of 51 work teams (Edmondson, 1999) found that a shared belief that the team is safe for interpersonal risk taking was linked with learning behaviour. These are associations and theory in specific settings, not in finance teams. The three steps at the end are practical readings, not tested methods, and this article is not medical advice.

The question at the coffee machine

Late on Friday an email arrives from group: the strategic review is ongoing, and no decisions will be made before October. On Monday, someone from your team stops you at the coffee machine and asks quietly: "Is our team being cut?"

You do not know. You hear yourself say: "I'm sure it will be fine." Nobody looks convinced, and you are not sure that you are.

How to lead through uncertainty: what the research says

The research cited here does not test a method for leading through uncertainty. It describes how a leader's mood relates to a group's mood and behaviour, a theory of why the unknown can feel threatening, and what a team's sense of safety is linked with. The studies were of groups, of theory and of manufacturing teams, and none was limited to finance. The next three sections cover what each one found. None of them tested the three steps at the end.

What a study of leader mood found about group mood

Sy, Côté and Saavedra (2005) examined how a leader's mood affects the moods of group members and the overall affective tone of the group. They also looked at three group processes: coordination, effort and task strategy. They used a model of mood contagion, which predicts that a leader's emotional state spreads to followers.

When leaders were in a positive mood rather than a negative one, members reported more positive mood and less negative mood. Those groups also had a more positive and less negative overall tone. Groups with positive-mood leaders showed more coordination and expended less effort than groups with negative-mood leaders. This is summarised from the published abstract.

Read the answer at the coffee machine through this. The mood you bring into a conversation is linked with the mood of the people you lead. This is an inference. The abstract summary used here does not report findings on task strategy, and the study did not test hiding or pretending to feel a mood.

What a review of fear of the unknown argues

Carleton (2016) examines whether fear of the unknown may be a fundamental fear underlying anxiety and neuroticism, and possibly the most fundamental one. The paper places the search for fundamental fears in context and reviews the criteria used to identify them.

The author then revises those criteria through logical argument, supported by available empirical data, and applies them to several candidate fears, including fear of the unknown. The paper closes with recommendations for future theory and for clinical and non-clinical research. This is summarised from the published abstract.

Read the question about the team through this. Not knowing can itself feel threatening, and the question may be as much about the unknown as about the answer. This is an inference. It is a theoretical review in the field of anxiety, and it is not a study of workplaces.

What a study of 51 teams found about safety to speak up

Edmondson (1999) studied 51 work teams in a manufacturing company. She describes team psychological safety as a shared belief that the team is safe for interpersonal risk taking. Psychological safety was associated with learning behaviour in the team. Team efficacy was not, once psychological safety was controlled.

Learning behaviour linked psychological safety with team performance. The study concludes that both structural factors, such as contextual support and team leader coaching, and shared beliefs shape what teams achieve. This is summarised from the published abstract and a repository page.

Read the Monday conversation through this. A team that feels safe to say what it is hearing may learn faster than a team that keeps it to itself. This is an inference. The study was of manufacturing teams in ordinary conditions, and it did not test uncertainty during a strategic review.

How to lead through uncertainty: three steps

None of these is a tested method, and none was studied in finance teams. They combine what the research points to with ordinary practice. Where a step goes beyond the research, it says so.

1. Say what you know, what you do not know, and when you will next update. This shrinks the unknown to the part nobody can answer yet. Carleton (2016) examines fear of the unknown, so a fixed date for the next update gives the unknown an edge. This is an inference, and no study cited here tested this step. For instance: "What I know: the review runs to October. What I don't know: whether it affects our team. Next update: the first Friday of each month, even if nothing has changed."

2. Check your own state before you walk in. Take two minutes to notice your mood, and do not pretend to a mood you do not have. Sy and colleagues (2005) linked a leader's mood with the mood of the group, though they did not test pretending. This is a judgement, and no study cited here tested this step. For instance: "I don't have an answer, and I'm not going to guess. Here is what I can tell you."

3. Ask the team what they are hearing and what would help. Make it easy to say. Edmondson (1999) linked a shared sense of safety with learning in teams. This is a judgement, and no study cited here tested this step. For instance: "What are you hearing that I should know about? What would make the next six weeks easier?"

If the uncertainty comes from repeated change, Change Fatigue at Work: Why Constant Change Wears You Down is about that. For the trust side of leading a team, there is How to Build Trust in a Team: What the Research Supports. When you have to decide before you are sure, see How to Make Decisions Under Pressure: What Stress Changes. For the first seconds of a strong reaction, The 90-Second Rule at Work: What's True and What Isn't is worth reading. And Decision Fatigue at Work: What's True and What Isn't looks at a long run of decisions.

Questions People Ask

Should I tell my team when I do not know?

The studies cited here did not test this. The steps above are a practical way to say it: what you know, what you do not, and when you will update. If your organisation has rules about what can be shared during a review, follow them.

How do I stay calm when I am uncertain myself?

The study of leader mood did not test calming techniques. The 90-Second Rule at Work: What's True and What Isn't looks at the first seconds of a strong reaction, and the second step above is a small check before you speak.

Is uncertainty harder than bad news?

The studies cited here did not compare the two. Carleton's review argues that fear of the unknown may be fundamental, and that is a theoretical position, not a finding about workplaces.

Can coaching help me lead through uncertainty?

Coaching is educational support for work patterns. It can help you notice how you respond when you do not have answers, and plan what to say. It is not treatment. No study cited here tested coaching.

When it is more than a tense period

A tense period is one thing. It is more when you cannot stop worrying, when you cannot sleep, when you feel persistently low or anxious, or when you notice physical symptoms. In those cases talk to your doctor, your occupational health service or a qualified mental health professional. This article is not medical advice. Coaching is educational support for work patterns. It is not treatment and not a substitute for it.

Sources

• Carleton, R. N. (2016). Fear of the unknown: One fear to rule them all? Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 41, 5–21. DOI: 10.1016/j.janxdis.2016.03.011 (Summarised from the published abstract.)

• Edmondson, A. (1999). Psychological safety and learning behavior in work teams. Administrative Science Quarterly, 44(2), 350–383. DOI: 10.2307/2666999 (Summarised from the published abstract and a repository page.)

• Sy, T., Côté, S., & Saavedra, R. (2005). The contagious leader: Impact of the leader's mood on the mood of group members, group affective tone, and group processes. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(2), 295–305. DOI: 10.1037/0021-9010.90.2.295 (Summarised from the published abstract.)